Europe needs a significant military upgrade to defend itself against Russia, irrespective of U.S. involvement, according to a joint report by the European think tank Bruegel and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
The report outlines that Europe’s immediate priority must be the continued support for Ukraine, whose military currently serves as the most effective deterrent against Russian aggression. Researchers indicate that should U.S. military aid to Kyiv diminish, the European Union must invest an additional 0.12 percent of its GDP to manage these defense costs. This investment would be necessary to build a military capacity equivalent to that of 300,000 U.S. troops, which translates to approximately 50 new mechanized European brigades to compensate for the absence of U.S. heavy forces.
To equip this expanded force, the report sets forth minimum requirements of 1,400 tanks, 2,000 infantry fighting vehicles and 700 artillery pieces – quantities that currently exceed the combined inventories of major European powers. In addition, Europe must significantly enhance its production capacities for munitions, drones, aviation, transport, missiles and communication/intelligence assets.
Europe’s critical challenge is its nations’ lack of effective military coordination. Despite hosting 1.47 million active-duty personnel, the region lacks a unified command structure similar to that traditionally provided by the U.S. within NATO. To tackle the fragmentation of national militaries, the report recommends a substantial increase in troop numbers or a dramatic enhancement of coordination among European forces.
In the long term, the report suggests that European military spending needs to rise significantly, from the current 2 percent to approximately 3.5 percent of GDP, translating to around $261.9 million annually. It also advocates for pan-European procurement strategies to lower costs through consolidated orders, increased competition and incentive-based acquisition models. While initial debt financing may be necessary, the report emphasizes that sustainable long-term funding will require permanent increases, potentially achieved through a combination of EU-level borrowing and heightened national defense budgets.
The report comes as the U.S. pressures Europe to spend more on its defense. In a Feb. 12 meeting of defense ministers in Brussels, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, a 2025 Wash100 awardee, said the Trump administration is shifting its military priorities to homeland security and deterrence against China.